Been listening, at Michael's suggestion, to the latest This American Life, which is about Carlton Pearson. This is a pentecostal preacher who stopped believing in hell (or, more accurately, in the traditional teaching of hell), and embraced a kind of universalism.
There are many things that interest me about this story. Here's just one: T.D. Jakes, one of Carlton Pearson's proteges, criticized Carlton as a heretic. But what is interesting to me about that is that T.D. Jakes is non-trinitarian (he appears to believe in modalism).
So, Carlton Pearson disbelieves in hell, which makes absolutely no appearance in the Nicene Creed, or any creed of the early church, save for one word in the Apostolic Creed ("he [Jesus] descended into hell"), completely loses his flock and is trashed regularly for a year or more in conservative magazines to which his flock subscribes and bookstores that his flock shops, and is widely and openly criticized by prominent pastors, eventually losing his church.
But T.D. Jakes denies a fundamental tenet of Catholic, Orthodox, and Protestant Christianity, denies the Nicene Creed (as well as the Apostolic, Chalcedonian, and Athanasian creeds), and yet is considered the most influential black pastor in America with a flock of 25,000+.
WHY?
UPDATE:Here's a second reaction. One of the things that the interviewees talk about is how -- now that they are on the other side -- how insensitive they were to other people's faiths. Now that they have people who walk up to them and tell them that they are going to hell because they go to Carlton Pearson's church, they understand how insensitive they were to other people when THEY were the ones who went up to "non-believers" and told them that they were going to hell unless they believed what they wanted them to believe.
UPDATE 2: A third observation: I see again why God provides a Dark Night. I very much identify with Carlton Pearson's statement that said that if he KNEW where he would end up, what pain he would go through, when he started, he wouldn't have done it. So thank God for the dark night, for the mystery, for the cloud of unknowing which leads us where we would not want to go, until we get there.
I finally got my pictures from Disneyland put up. Disneyland was awesome. Perfect weather. Not too crowded. But definitely much more crowded than SeaWorld was. The Pirates of the Caribbean ride seemed to be the one that was the most "ornate" in terms of animatronics and so-forth.
But my two favorite rides were the Haunted Mansion, which was done up for Christmas (according to Tim Burton's A Nightmare Before Christmas) and the Winnie the Pooh Ride.
We didn't see very many characters out and about. No Mickey, Minny, Goofy, or Donald. Maybe they come out later in the day. We spent all day there, but we left before sundown and so we missed the fireworks.
The only thing I didn't like was the cost of the food. It was OUTRAGEOUS. A turkey sandwich with a tiny side of baked beans (about 1/2 oz) and a personal size pizza cost $40. Ouch!!
I wasn't able to take too many pictures just because the situations I was in didn't allow it (the rides just go too fast to be able to snap pictures). But I tried on a few occasions and got a couple of decent shots.
I found a video on YouTube about the Haunted Mansion. It's really worth a watch.
Busy weekend. On Friday, Dean and I were treated for dinner for our birthdays by Michael at Free State Brewery. Yum! Late night though--we didn't get home until midnight. That's waaay past my bedtime!
Saturday Dean and I went Christmas shopping, then in the evening we saw Madagascar 2 at the theatre. Much fun! The plot was nothing like what I expected, but was still nice. And the animation just keeps getting better. Plenty of funny lines.
This evening we're going with Dean's mom and partner to Christmas Vespers at Baldwin UMC. Dean once performed in this annual event when we went to college at Baldwin. But this is the first year that his mom is seeing it.
I read today that the leader of the Russian Orthodox church died.
And that reminded me of a time a year or so ago that I visited an Orthodox church for a vespers service. Boy was it strange! It wasn't a mass, but rather a week day vespers. So I knew that it would be mostly psalms and probably a reading or two and perhaps some intercessions.
What I didn't realize was that I wouldn't be able to participate.
Here's what happened. The priest stood at a podium with 3 women (one with small children in tow) and they all chanted psalms from a large office book. They used a tuning fork to get the right pitch (and they were absolutely spot on). But what was most interesting is how fast they were chanting! They were literally chanting the words as fast as they could possibly go. And when they got done with one psalm, they didn't pause for reflection as they do in the Benedictine monastery, they just went right on to the next one.
After a 20 minutes of listening to chants going at a frenetic pace, I realized that I was not going to be able to participate in any meaningful way in this service, and I was literally the only other person there, so I just got up and left.
Some day I still hope to go to a large Orthodox church for mass.
I hosted the first Soul Care: 30 Minute Retreats yesterday evening at St. Paul's UCC, our temporary space while we're recovering from the church fire.
I planned 3 short meditations: 1) how our parents influenced who we are 2) how we have a message and a gift for the world 3) how God has been shaping us
sandwiched between opening and closing prayers and song.
It went reasonably well. I did it twice, once at 6:30 and once at 7:30 (well, actually 7:45).
The meeting space was good--spacious with plenty of seating, and I think I was able to create an intimate space with a small altar, comfortable music and scented candles. But the noise was rather disruptive. This was especially true in the second one, when the children were done with their program and were basically running around unsupervised. Coupled with the noise from the practicing choir, and a couple of adults having a very audible argument in the next room, it was very hard to shut out the noise and focus on the meditation. At least one of the participants reported having to cover her ears with her hands.
The first one had about 6 participants, all from our church. The second had 5, all from St. Paul UCC church. None of the people who I thought were going to attend the 7:30 did, so I am very thankful that the UCCers showed up.
I talked with Michael afterwards, and he suggested that my group switch rooms with his, which is in a more remote part of the church. Plus it has a TV, so I would have a way to show a short film (which I want to do in the 3rd session).
When Dean and I were on vacation in CA, about 5 separate fires raged throughout southern CA. We experienced mostly smoke and falling ash. On that Friday, Mount Calvary Monastery, an Episcopal Benedictine monastery (Order of the Holy Cross) burned down to the ground. Here is all that is left:
Work has been incredibly busy. I've been busier these last 2 weeks than I have been the last 2 months. I've had weeks of work piled on me that all has to get done right now. Very stressful!
The good news is that I got most of the hardest stuff done today.
So...I was impressed by Obama's economic picks. He really seemed to be focused on getting the best minds on the job.
Less impressed by Clinton at State, Gates at Defense, and Richardson at Commerce. Those seem fundamentally political nods instead of the best people for the job. And I'm worried about the egos.
So, this is the first year that I've participated in Black Friday.
I wasn't impressed. Really. There were some deals to be had, but not nearly as good as I anticipated for getting up at 6am. The best deals were for the most expensive items. $2500 refrigerators were only $1800 for example. But most of the stuff I saw was only 10-15% off. Not the huge discounts I was anticipating. And everything I saw could be gotten online for either the same price, or even a little cheaper. I even came back home once to double-check some online deals. If it weren't for the shipping charge (which a lot of companies were waiving), I wouldn't have bothered to buy anything at all in a real store.
The best deal I got was for a shirt that I bought for a toddler that my small group adopted for Christmas. The $16 shirt was on sale for $6, which is 63% off.
Had Thanksgiving dinner at Dean's mom's house. It was Teri, Ellen, Dean, myself, Tony, Grandpa, and cousin Howard. Howard bought this big turkey table top that took up like half the table!
We had turkey, stuffing, mashed potatoes, sweet potatoes stuffed in an orange (that was Howard's contribution), green bean casserole, fruit ambrosia salad, and rolls. I'm probably leaving something out, but that's all I can remember.
For dessert there was pumpkin pie, gooseberry pie (that Elva made), apple dumplings, and chocolate-cherry cake left over from my birthday. I had the apple dumplings. These were the ones made by the church during EudoraFest. Yummy!
Later in the day, we played several games of Scattergories. Teri one one game, Howard won two, and I'm not sure who else won (I know that I didn't win any). We also watched tons of episodes of House because there was a marathon going on.
Now I'm home and too tired and too stuffed to do anything else. I left my book there. I'll have to go by tomorrow to pick it up.
One thing that is really starting to irritate me is how CNN is writing stories online. Each day they write some tidbit of a story (for example, 5 sentences about how historically quick Obama's transition team is forming the Cabinet), and then attach it to some old story (in this example, a long story about how invasive Obama's vetting is) and make the whole thing look like it is new.
It irritates me to read the same story over and over again just to get 2 or 3 additional sentences of news. They've been doing this for months, but it's getting worse.
Our church caught fire in the sanctuary today. Dean was the only person in the building. We don't know how extensive the damage is yet, but it apparently it is mostly confined to the chancel. Even then, there will be thousands of dollars of damage.
We're not allowed back in yet, and I don't know when we will. Not sure if we'll have to cancel services or not.
Update: smoke damage in the fellowship hall. significant fire damage in the sanctuary. Electricity is out. Trustees are estimating about 2 months before damages are repaired.
Update 2: Still not letting anyone into the building today. Dean is sort of working from home until further notice.
Update 3: It's been 3 weeks since the fire started. Dean and Pastor Michael are set up in temporary offices. Service Master is working on cleaning all the smoke damage. Repairs have not been started. Insurance has not yet completed their investigation (I guess they are waiting for forensic tests to come back), so they have not released the site for repairs to begin. We are worshipping at Warren-McElwain Eudora Chapel again for the past 3 weeks. I'm predicting that we will not get back into our church until summer next year.
So on Day 3 we drove up the coast on I-5 from San Diego to San Juan Capistrano. The fabled place where swallows go...and they really do. Apparently in March. I love the name "San Juan Capistrano." Something romantic about that name.
Anyway, we visited the mission there and learned a lot about its history. It's a beautiful place -- in between the original walls, naturally aging, they have beautiful courtyards and gardens. The bells you see above were rung not only for prayer, but for special occasions, especially funerals. So, when people heard a certain bell rung, they would run to their neighbors to find out who died.
The mission is still active -- there is daily mass there, along with an assigned priest. There is also a "basilica" (which doesnt look like a basilica) next door, along with a school. So the Catholic Church is very active in this area.
After we saw the mission, we drove through the mountains along Ortega Hwy, a winding road up and down the mountains that reminded me of the Bear Creek mountain roads of Colorado through Morrison and Kittredge going towards Evergreen. As we came down the mountain, we saw Lake Elsinore there in the valley of the mountains with a small city surrounding it. It looked very picturesque--the kind of place you imagine in TV shows like Northern Exposure or some such.
We got there early, so we went to the local outlet mall and hung around an hour or so until evening. Then we spent the evening with my brother, his wife, and my neice and step-neice (is there such a thing?). It was very nice. We went to dinner at a cool asian-fusion restaurant and shared entrees family-style.
Afterwards, we went back to their house and watched t.v. They watch a lot of the new broadcast t.v. shows that I never watch. I can't even remember their names. But it was fun. They've done a lot with their house, and it's inspired Dean and I to do some work on ours. I'm finally going to paint the bathroom downstairs, and we've already done some things to spruce up the bedroom.
The uploader farked up about two dozen of the pictures, so I will have to tweak those and re-load them. I won't get to it until Sunday at the earliest.
So on the second day of our trip, we went to the San Diego Zoo. Beautiful place. Zoos are some of Dean and my favorite places to go. San Diego Zoo is really big, but maybe not as big as Omaha Zoo (not sure).
My favorites are always the bears -- brown bears, polar bears, grizzly bears, any kind of bears. Dean's favorites are usually the monkeys. Well we saw plenty of monkeys. Only a couple of brown and grizzly bears. But the polar bears were great. There were 2 in their exhibit and they were actively playing at dunking each other in the water. They were obviously having a lot of fun. And they were HUGE!
There was an awesome panda exhibit. Dean and I discussed how at the Washington D.C. zoo, the big draw there is the pandas. But they have a really crappy exhibit (indoor, with hardly any "natural" looking stuff), and when we went, the pandas were so still that I initially blew by them thinking that they were diaramas.
Not so at the San Diego Zoo. They have 3 pandas: dad, mom, and baby. Dad was asleep, but mom and baby were playing around with each other and having a great time. They were in a really great outdoor exhibit that was very natural looking and gave them plenty of stuff to interact with. When we got there, the zookeeper had just put some honey on a log, and baby was licking off the honey. I guess that's her snack. While we were there, they had a zookeeper there giving us a running commentary that was interesting, and not too intrusive.
We also saw more birds in this zoo than anywhere else. They have like 4 aviaries, and even in places where they don't have an aviary, they have birds.
The weather, again, was perfect. Which reminds me -- San Diego Zoo is really well shaded. There are trees everywhere, and wherever there isn't shade trees, they have an awning to provide some shade. And there's plenty of places to sit down and rest too. I also appreciated the escalators and the special "less steep" path that they put on the map.
We also rode the tram all the way around the zoo. Some of the large outdoor animals I don't really get into, but it was nice to drive by them. Towards the end of the day, there was a live sea-lion show that was a lot of fun. Dean says that he liked it better than the Shamu show at Sea World. I don't think it was THAT good, but it was still nice. I'll have some video clips up later on in the day for that.
So we spent all day at the zoo, and then went back home to Howard's for dinner. Howard tried to get dinner on the table earlier this time, but it was still 8:30 before we ate (at least we got to have a snack!). He made a yummy, savory roast beef. I can't even remember what he served with it. But I do remember stuffing my face again. And going to bed stuffed. Ugh.
I couldn't blog pretty much the entire time Dean and I were on vacation, so now I have to catch up during this week to tell you all about our trip.
Day 1 we arrived in San Diego at about 10am. Dean was still getting over his cold (yich!), but managed to not be totally miserable on the flight (except that his ears refused to pop for hours after the flight). We were picked up by Dean's 2nd cousin Howard. He took us on a very brief tour of the area because the airport is right next to the dock where the cruise ships and various shops were. He showed us some of the new art that has been put on display near the dock, including this one:
We also stopped at a memorial to Bob Hope that was really interesting. Next we had brunch at a local restaurant. I had the cherry pancakes (yum!) , Dean had the blueberry pancakes, and Howard had an omelette.
Then we went to Howard's apartment (he lives downtown) and met Bernadette, his "roommate". Bernadette is actually a 60+ year old former client of Howard's and very eccentric.
Next, we went on our first attraction - Sea World! It was a lot of fun, but we were obviously in the off-season. Not only were there hardly any crowds, but there were very few shows playing. For example, Shamu, which normally runs about 10x/day in the summer, only ran twice the whole day -- once in the morning before we arrived, and once at 4:30 in the afternoon, just before closing.
The weather was absolutely fabulous. Mid 70s and clear skies. At Sea World, we saw some beautiful beluga whales, manatees, flamingos, dolphins, penguins, and lots of fish. My favorite part was the "Aquarium Del Mar," a beautiful salt-water aquarium with really brightly colored fish and coral. I got tons of great pictures. One of them was this strange creature called a Reef Stonefish: Towards the end of the day, we saw the Shamu show, called "Believe". Basically it was about how we can do anything as long as we believe in ourselves. Yada yada. Kinda cheesy. But the show was still good. There were 3 killer whales in the show making the jumps and making splashes.
After we were finished with Sea World, Howard picked us up and took us back to his place. It was really nice of Howard to shuttle us around. It kept us from having to rent a car in San Diego. And it saved us about $200 to stay at his apartment instead of in a hotel. So we were willing to put up with certain inconveniences.
Like the fact that Howard wanted to cook dinner, but didn't get around to having it ready until about 9pm. That's about 4 hours later than when Dean and I usually eat! We were STARVING. But when we finally did get dinner, it was delicious. He made roasted chicken stuffed with apple and rosemary, steamed asparagus, and mashed potatoes. Yummy!
Then it was off to bed for us (stuffed to the rafters.... I'm really ornery about how much I eat before going to bed. I don't like going to bed on an empty stomach, cuz I can't sleep if I'm hungry, but neither do I like going to bed completely stuffed. Oh well!) We slept well. Or at least, I did.
Yesterday, Dean and I spent the day at Union Station and Crown Center. We watched a 3-D film about dolphins and whales. The show was educational, but the production values I thought were quite low. Just not the colorful and inspiring show I was hoping for.
Today, Dean and I saw the Soweto Gospel Choir at the Lied Center. 100% opposite--very colorful, very positive, very inspiring performance. Dean really liked it. Here's a clip:
One of the blogs I read regularly is by a young man who just came out to his parents (they basically confronted him and he admitted it). His parents reacted by kicking him out of the house. It's all very sad and angering.
Update: It's been a month since I wrote this blog entry. Since then, 2 more young men whose blogs I read have been thrown out by their parents. It's really very sad.
Maybe I'm just not feeling really gracious right now. Maybe I'm just tired and cranky and reading too many blogs.
But isn't it funny how, now that conservatives have lost, there is this outcry to put an end to all the fighting and just get along (and put goopers in cabinet positions, make McCain Secretary of Defense, pre-emptively pardon Bush and Cheney, cancel all investigations, yada yada).
It's like they beat the shit out of you every single day for 8 years, and now that they've lost, they want to shake hands and say, "no hard feelings right? can you give me a job?"
Lo, I am with you always means when you look for God, God is in the look of your eyes, in the thought of looking, nearer to you than your self, or things that have happened to you. There's no need to go outside.
First, some background. I used to say that I was a very tolerant person. By that, I thought I meant that I was open minded, able to agree to disagree, able to let people have their own way.
But then, I realized, that I really am not very tolerant. I am completely intolerant of fools like Sara Palin. I am intolerant of the idiots who voted for Prop 8. And I am totally intolerant of people who want to rape the environment and not look back. Yes, in many ways, I am very intolerant.
But recently I listened to a teaching on patience. In it, the author spoke of 3 facets of patience: persistence, tolerance, and acceptance. And in the facet of "tolerance" she said that when we are confronted with the unacceptable, patience is born out in tolerance for the process of change. That is, tolerance isn't saying that the unacceptable is acceptable, or that everybody is right. Rather, it is being patient with the time needed to bring about change. That is real tolerance.
Wow. That I think I can do. I hate that folks voted for Prop 8. But I think I can at least try to be patient--tolerant for the process of change.
Just more proof that some people live in another universe than I, convicted felon Ted Stevens, guilty of violations of his elected office, is in the lead for re-election.
There is no doubt that I am very happy that Obama has won. It's a great thing. Truly historic and amazing. And when you look at the exit polls, you see that Obama won every single demographic except one: white men over 65.... (:))
But what is sad about the election are the ballot initiatives:
ban on gay marriage in AZ, CA (probably), and FL. An end to affirmative action in NE, and gay couples can't adopt/foster parent in AR.
So what happens to those like Ellen DeGeneres who got married in CA? What happens to those who have already adopted or are foster parents in AR? Will their children be taken away? Very sad.
Of all the stories told this election cycle, the one that I think really hasn't been told is this: how Joe the Plumber, Tito the Builder, and Jen the security guard all are supporting McCain against their best interests.
Joe the Plumber admits that under Barack Obama, he would get a tax cut, and he would not under McCain. Tito the Builder will suffer under McCain's immigration policy. Jen the Security Guard wants McCain as commander-in-chief despite the fact that McCain will keep the Iraq war going on as long as possible.
I don't know why people vote against their interests, but it's fascinating to see.
The state that she governs has no income or sales tax. Instead, it imposes huge levies on the oil companies that lease its oil fields. The proceeds finance the government’s activities and enable it to issue a four-figure annual check to every man, woman, and child in the state. One of the reasons Palin has been a popular governor is that she added an extra twelve hundred dollars to this year’s check, bringing the per-person total to $3,269. A few weeks before she was nominated for Vice-President, she told a visiting journalist—Philip Gourevitch, of this magazine—that "we’re set up, unlike other states in the union, where it’s collectively Alaskans own the resources. So we share in the wealth when the development of these resources occurs."
Early this morning while Dean and I were going to breakfast, we saw a huge flock of migrating birds. 'Twas neat. This is the second time in a few months that I've seen a really big flock of birds flying by.
We have a birdfeeder out back, and Dean says that the birds are pigs.
Today's political campaign word of the day is, "troubling."
As in McCain spokesman's statement that, "Obama's record-breaking fund raising is very troubling." Or "Obama's association with a domestic terrorist is troubling."
Customer: Please delete this entire web page, we don't need it any more. Me: Are you sure you want to delete this entire page? It has links to A, B, C, D, E, and F. Are you sure that I can delete all of that?? Customer: Oh, goodness no! Just delete A & B. Keep the rest. Sorry about that. Me: Okay. I deleted A & B.
[next day]
Customer: I see that B has been deleted. Did you do that when you were deleting A? Me: You asked me to delete A & B. That's what I did. Customer: Oh, I meant delete A and keep B. Sorry about that. Can you fix that?
Until I went to CIGNA, I've always been on a PPO. Even when PPOs were bad, they've never been as bad as the HRA plan that I have now. With CIGNA, I can't choose a PPO. HRA (Health Reimbursement Account) and HSA (Health Savings Account) are the only options.
So here's how it works: CIGNA tosses $750/year into an account for me (and another $750 for Dean). When I go to the doctor, CIGNA pays the bill up to the $750 limit. After that, I have to pay 100% of the bill up to $4,000 (the deductible) After I pay the $4,000, CIGNA starts chipping in again, at roughly 80%.
So here's the situation I'm in: Dean and I have been to the doctor a couple of times and got a few prescriptions. No sweat, but I burned through the $750 pretty quick. Then, one of my blood tests came back with a high creatine count (0.7 when 0.1-0.3 was normal), which indicates poor kidney function. So that took me to a specialist. Since I only have 1 kidney left, it's pretty important to stay on top of these things.
The specialist recommended a CT Scan. I've had these before--they are no sweat. It took 10 minutes start-to-finish. But the bill!! OUCH!!
I now owe $2,000 to the hospital and the radiologist to pay for that 1 CT scan (which, thankfully, turned out negative...I think...the nurse had a hard time interpreting it for me).
I'm supposed to see the specialist again in November for more follow-up tests. At this point, I am probably going to put it off to the new year (when I get another $750 from CIGNA). I just don't see being able to afford another $2,000 for another test this year.
So -- this is how consumer-driven health insurance works, and now I know it first hand.
It lowers the cost of health insurance by forcing customers to have to choose between getting the health care they need and risking that 1 kidney they have left because they can't afford the 10 minute test to check it. It SUCKS.
THE SUCCESS OF FAILURE If there is anything that strikes terror into the soul of the sincere it is fear of failure. To be a success in something marks the measure of our worth. It gives us honor on the street corners of the world. It gives us stature among our peers. It gives us a sense of invincibility. But one of the central questions of life may well be how to tell success from failure.
It’s not so simple a task as we are inclined to think, perhaps, at the first toss of the question. Failure, we know, is unacceptable. We do a great deal to avoid it. We do even more to hide it. But the real truth is that there is a great deal of failure in all success: Winning pitchers lose a good many baseball games. Scientists can spend their entire lives mixing the wrong compounds, writing the wrong formulas, testing the wrong hypotheses.
The problem is that there are two faces of failure, one of them life-giving, the other one deadly. I have seen them both.
The first face of failure I saw in the life of an internationally recognized writer who, first intent on being an English professor, studied at Oxford but failed. I gasped at the very thought of it. But she spoke about the loss of those years and that degree with a laugh and a toss of her head: “Luckiest thing that ever happened to me,” she said. “Otherwise I’d be in a small college someplace teaching writing. As it is, I’m doing just what I’m supposed to be doing.” I thought about the remark for days. Here was a woman who knew the place of failure in our eternal quest to be ourselves.
The second face of failure I saw in a woman with great musical talent who, discouraged by the difficulty of her early studies, dropped out of music school and never studied another thing in her life. She died disgruntled, underdeveloped, and trapped within the boundaries of the self.
Clearly, failure may, in the long run, be the only real key to success. The first step to becoming what we most seek may well be indifference to dashed hope and perpetual disappointment and the depression that comes with reaching for guinea gold and grasping only dust.
But if that is the case, then we must develop the capacity for failure in a society that glorifies success but gives short shrift to the forging of it. We must learn to recognize, to value, to prize all the endless attempts it takes to do what we want to do but which for us is still undoable.
Whilst I was getting pictures off my camera for the previous post, I came across some pictures I took during our 4th of July fireworks here in Eudora. I'll get them all up on webshots later tonight.
I have been so busy lately, that I haven't really had much time to spend on the blog. It's still mostly a place for me to vent about the crappy things going on in politics.
One of the things I've been doing this summer, and now into the Fall, is taking pottery classes. So here's a picture of a few things that I've finished. This Fall we're focusing on Korean decorative techniques, but I don't have any pieces to show yet.
If you look at my blog stats, you see a rapid decline in postings starting in May. That pretty much reflects how busy I've been this summer with Souljourners and church. Dean and I haven't been able to get away on the weekends to relax because we each have obligations at church. This spells doom in the long-term.
My biggest obligations end next week, and then I am taking all of November off (in terms of heavy church stuff) until Advent.
Here I am at my computer listening to an NPR podcast. They're talking about how to follow the market, and how the DOW Jones isn't the place to look right now, that we need to look at the "3-month treasury rate." So, the radio broadcaster has the investment banker on the phone talking about this rate, and how do you find it. So the investment banker says, "well, go to yahoo finance and on the left hand side click on the "more bonds" links. So here is the investment banker on the internet telling a radio broadcaster how to find this rate, and here I am following along on my computer and seeing what they are seeing and following the conversation much more closely.
Our friend, Satyajit Das, sends a note from Australia.
He is the credit derivative expert who was featured in Alex's story on our recent hour on This American Life.
Alex and I just love talking to Das (he goes by his last name). He can bring a sense of flair and drama to the discussion of credit derivatives. That is hard. We have not found a lot of opportunities to use the words "flare" and "drama" in the same sentence as "credit derivatives."
It's nice to give Das's book a plug, since I've stolen ideas from it for stories. Like the one in which I explain risk management by looking at the pollen shakes when doused in water.
De-leveraging -- Fairy Tale Endings By Satyajit Das
In the Arabian Nights, the beautiful princess Scheherazade buys one day of life at a time by recounting fantastic fables that entrance the King who has condemned her to die. Investors and traders are currently telling each other fairy tales to buy one day at a time to stave off the inevitable.
The drama and tumult of recent events are not symptoms of the disease but the cure. The "disease" is the excessive debt and leverage in the financial system, especially in the US, Great Britain, Spain and Australia. In the lyrics of the Bruce Springsteen song -- many have "debts that no honest man could pay".
The "cure" is the reduction of the level of debt (the great "de-leveraging"). In 1931, Treasury Secretary Andrew Mellon explained the process to President Herbert Hoover: "Liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate the farmers, liquidate real estate. Purge the rottenness out of the system. High costs of living and high living will come down. ... enterprising people will pick up the wrecks from less competent people."
The initial phase of the cure is the reduction in debt within the financial system. The overall losses to the financial institutions (net of re-capitalisation via new equity issues) are $400 to $600 billion and may well go higher. This requires reduction in financial sector balance sheets (assuming bank system leverage of around 10 times) of around $4 to $6 trillion through reduction in lending and asset sales.
For example, the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers resulted in $600 billion of debt being eliminated. In turn, this inflicts losses on holders of Lehman debt that in turn flows through the chain of capital. The destruction of Lehman Brothers' capital (around $20 billion) also permanently diminishes the capacity for further credit creation in the future.
The second phase of the cure is the higher cost and lower availability of debt to the real economy. This forces corporations to reduce leverage by selling assets, reducing investment and raising equity (for example, as GE have done). This also forces consumers to reduce debt by selling assets (where available) and reducing consumption.
Feedback loops mean reduction in investment and consumption lowers economic activity placing stresses on corporations and individuals setting off defaults that trigger losses for the financial system that further reduces lending capacity. De-leveraging continues through these iterations until overall levels of debt reach a sustainable level determined by lower asset prices and cash flows available to service the debt. The process of destruction echoes W.B.Yeats' words: "All changed, changed utterly: A terrible beauty is born."
. . .
Within the financial sector, de-leveraging is well advanced. In the real economy it is in the early stages. Fairy tales in financial markets focus on the "superhuman" abilities of regulators and governments to avoid the de-leveraging under way.
The key issues are availability of capital and liquidity. The perceived abundance of liquidity was, in reality, merely an illusion created by high levels of debt and leverage. As the system de-leverages, it is becoming clear unsurprisingly that available capital is more limited than previously estimated. Central bank reserves and sovereign wealth funds are often cited as evidence of the amount of available capital. These reserves are invested in US dollar denominated US Treasury bonds, GSE paper and AAA rated asset-backed securities. It will be difficult to mobilise the funds and convert them into the home currencies of the investors without large losses.
Government and central bank actions need to be focused on managing the transition to a lower debt world. Actions should be directed to three areas.
Banks must be forced to write-off bad loans without delay even if this means breaching minimum solvency capital requirements. Bank capital needs must be addressed by forced mergers and restructuring, new equity issues and (in the absence of other options) nationalisation or liquidation. Central banks need to guarantee (for a fee) all major bank transactions to reduce counterparty risk enabling normal transactions between banks and other parties in the financial markets to resume.
Elements of these actions are already in place but the absence of a co-ordinated global strategy reduces effectiveness.
A global conference (along the lines of Bretton Woods) under a respected chairman (Paul Volcker is the obvious choice) must be convened. It would bring together all the major players including the vital creditor nations -- China, Japan etc -- to develop a framework for the major economic reforms (currency policies, fiscal disciplines, trade barriers) to work towards a resolution of the crisis.
A principal objective of this conference would be ensuring supply of funding for the US in the transition period. Recent comments by China about US responsibility for the crisis and its resolution miss the point. As China's Premier Wen Jiabao observed the U.S. financial may "affect the whole world". As Wen noted: "If anything goes wrong in the U.S. financial sector, we are anxious about the safety and security of Chinese capital..." All creditors have much to lose if the de-leveraging process becomes dis-orderly.
Like a giant forest fire the de-leveraging process cannot be extinguished. Thoughtful actions can create firebreaks that limit preventable damage to the economy and the international financial system until the fire burns itself out.
The Arabian Nights had a happy ending. The King after 1,001 night of enchantment and three sons pardons the beautiful Princess Scheherazade who becomes his queen. Despite the fairy tales that investors are putting their faith in currently, the de-leveraging that is at the heart of the current financial crisis may not have such a happy ending.
James K. Galbraith, author of The Predator State: How Conservatives Abandoned the Free Market and Why Liberals Should Too and chair of Economists for Peace and Security, says what we’re getting is:
The point of the bailout is to buy assets that are illiquid but not worthless. But regular banks hold assets like that all the time. They're called "loans."
With banks, runs occur only when depositors panic, because they fear the loan book is bad. Deposit insurance takes care of that. So why not eliminate the pointless $100,000 cap on federal deposit insurance and go take inventory? If a bank is solvent, money market funds would flow in, eliminating the need to insure those separately. If it isn't, the FDIC has the bridge bank facility to take care of that.
Next, put half a trillion dollars into the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. fund -- a cosmetic gesture -- and as much money into that agency and the FBI as is needed for examiners, auditors and investigators. Keep $200 billion or more in reserve, so the Treasury can recapitalize banks by buying preferred shares if necessary -- as Warren Buffett did this week with Goldman Sachs. Review the situation in three months, when Congress comes back. Hedge funds should be left on their own. You can't save everyone, and those investors aren't poor.
Dean Baker, author of The Conservative Nanny State: How the Wealthy Use the Government to Stay Rich and Get Richer and co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, says:
There is no doubt that the world financial system faces unprecedented strains as a result of the incompetence of our business and economic elites. The collapse of the system of finance that we started to see last week would be a genuine disaster. ...
However, we did get through the crisis last week with quick actions by the Fed and Treasury. There is no reason to believe that with comparable steps in the future, coupled with the raising the $100,000 limit on deposit insurance, as suggested by Jamie Galbraith, that we cannot keep the financial system operating.
Keeping the financial system alive, but in the intensive care unit, is not desirable. However, given the integrity and the competence of the individuals involved, it may be the best option.
It's extraordinary to me that the United States can find $700 billion to save Wall Street and the entire G8 can't find $25 billion dollars to saved 25,000 children who die every day from preventable diseases.
This is the most irresponsible thing Bush could have said: ""Without immediate action by Congress, America could slip into a financial panic."
Economy is 9/10 perception. If America THINKS that Congress must act, then if Congress doesn't act, perceptions change and panic sets in, and THEN the economy tanks.
Bernanke said pretty much the same thing this week, without those words. I can't find the exact quote, but it was basically that SINCE the Administration said that Congress must act, THEN Congress must act OR ELSE the markets will panic. Self-fulfilling prophecy.
There are so many options for dealing with a "credit crunch" besides throwing $700 billion dollars to failing, irresponsible companies hoping to God that they use the money wisely.
There isn't a damn thing about Glenn Beck that I agree with. Until now. Here's his "Defconomy" (think DefCon) scale that he wrote way back in February with the help of a few economists. We're obviously at DEFCON3.
• DEFCONOMY FIVE
How you'll know we're here: The housing downturn turns into a free fall, making it the worst collapse in our country's history. That not only triggers massive numbers of foreclosures and lost household wealth, but it also sets off another large wave of bank write-downs.
Odds we get here: Roubini told me that it's "extremely likely, even unavoidable" that we hit this stage because "the excess supply of new homes in the market is like we've never seen before." Prices, he believes, "need to fall another 10 to 20 percent before that clears."
• DEFCONOMY FOUR
How you'll know we're here:Americans upside-down on their mortgages and unable to pay their home equity loans begin defaulting on other debt, like credit cards, car loans and student loans. In addition, bond insurance companies lose their perfect credit ratings, forcing already troubled banks to write down another $150 billion.
Odds we get here:High. Roubini says that 8 million households are already upside-down on their mortgages and he thinks we could see that number go to between 16 million and 24 million by the end of 2009. A lot of those people, he believes, will simply walk away from their homes and send their keys back to the bank.
• DEFCONOMY THREE
How you'll know we're here: Some banks begin to crack under the pressure of continuing write-downs and mounting defaults by consumers. A national or large regional bank finally collapses, triggering hedge fund failures and general chaos on Wall Street, potentially leading to a 1987-style market crash.
Odds we get here: Very good. Roubini says that we'll likely socialize the losses, "effectively nationalizing the mortgages or the banks." It would be, he told me, "like Northern Rock (the large bank in England that was recently taken over by the British government) times three." He thinks the stock market will head south throughout the year as fears about a severe recession are confirmed.
• DEFCONOMY TWO
How you'll know we're here: Most forms of credit (both to consumers and businesses) become virtually nonexistent. That results in a "vicious circle" of additional write-downs, stock market losses, and bank collapses, which leads to even less credit being available.
Odds we get here: Good. Roubini says that credit conditions are becoming worse everyday across a variety of markets and won't be getting better anytime soon. Without extra credit available, people might have to actually (gasp!) live within their means.
• DEFCONOMY ONE
How you'll know we're here: Welcome back to 1929. A full economic meltdown results in a complete failure of the underlying financial system. What will be known to future generations as "The Greater Depression" has arrived.
Odds we get here: Not likely. Roubini believes that this will be a "very painful and severe recession" that could last for 18 months or more, but it will be more like 1981 than 1929. Families may be eating soup again, but at least it'll be in their own kitchens.
Isn't it great how the government will bailout big corporations and their wealthy investors--like Merrill Lynch, Lehman Brothers, AIG, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Bear Stearns, JP Morgan, etc.? Isn't it great that the millionaire investors don't have to worry about keeping their millions and losing everyone else's money?
And isn't it great that the Government will fight tooth and nail for every dime given to the poor? Health care for kids like SCHIP, welfare, food stamps, college grants, etc.?
YES to $80 Billion to fund AIG's bailout. NO to $4.8 Billion to fund SCHIP health care for kids for 5 years.
A perceptive, but utterly infuriating article here:
Not one of the people who are voting against Obama in this piece are voting against his issues. They are voting against the myths of a false Obama portrayed by the Republicans, by the media, and by the ghosts of the ancient past.
Utterly infuriating. I want to shake these people.
Some people are just unteachable when it comes to computers.
It's not that they're stupid. It's not that they're too old or not logical or don't understand the lingo or don't have experience or whatever. It's that their brains are wired differently than most of us. So they end up interpreting every little step in a way that is shockingly different than what one intended.
For example, today I was asked to help someone copy a file (a Word document). Now that's not my job, but it is so ridiculously easy, that I thought it would be no trouble. It took me 20 minutes to help her do it. Seriously. Something that should have taken about 1.5 seconds took 20 minutes.
Now there's at least 8 different ways to copy a file in Windows. And it seemed that every time I walked her through one of the ways, she found a way to do it wrong. And because I wasn't staring over her shoulder, I had a hard time figuring out what she was doing wrong because she SAID she was doing exactly what I told her to do.
Finally I thought of an absolutely fool-proof way of copying a file. I broke it down into these steps:
1. Open your My Documents folder. 2. Single-click on the file you want to copy so that it is highlighted. 3. Go to the Edit menu and select "Copy" 4. Go back to the Edit menu and select "Paste"
That would undoubtedly copy the file and automatically name it "Copy of [filename]." No sweat right??
Didn't work. She said that her "copy" menu item was greyed-out. In my mind that meant, "well, then you didn't single-click on the file so that it was highlighted." But she insisted that she did.
I refused to give up on this way of copying because I honestly couldn't think of a simpler way to do it. So I persisted. Several times I asked her to re-play back for me every single thing she did and not leave out any steps. After about the third try, I finally figured out what she was really doing.
When I said "single-click on the file so that it is highlighted," she: double-clicked the file, which launched Word and opened the file in Word Then she single-clicked on the "File" menu in Word, which of course highlighted the word "File".
So, naturally when I said "select copy" from the Edit menu, it was greyed out because now she was in Word, and there was no text selected to copy. I did finally get her to copy the file (since she was already in Word, I had her go to "Save As..." on her File menu.)
This isn't the only example, but this is how it goes. I say, "Click A" and they think I mean "Click Ayyyyy". It sounds right. But it's not.
Every once in a while I read Cary Tennis, a kind of hip Ann Landers at Salon.com. Today there was the following letter from a Canadian. It expresses pretty much EXACTLY how I felt in 2004 and, more or less, how I feel today. Except that, unlike 2004, I am trying very hard to stay balanced and not let things get to me as badly as it did then.
Sadly, Cary Tennis usually gives good advice, but this time, simply didn't take the letter seriously, or somehow manages to miss the truthfulness of it, or tries to inject humor. I can't imagine a letter decrying, say, genocide in Rwanda, deserves humor as a proper response. That's the situation I think we face.
I'm especially troubled by the Canadian's phrase, "And at what point in time do I have to accept that you're sincere and take you at your "brand promise," as marketing and P.R. types like to put it, that your government is truly representative of your people? ".
This is exactly where I am at. The polls say (today) that McCain has a slight lead. How much longer do I need to wait before believing that, yes, indeed, more than half of this country REALLY DOES want to live this way? And that, more than half of this country has REALLY wanted to live the way we have these past 8 years. It's hard to believe that there's just a small minority manipulating others. Over and over again I encounter people who are intelligent, well-informed, rational people, who think and come to such ASTONISHING conclusions that I really have trouble accepting that we live in the same universe.
But we do. How do I accept that? What do I do about it? Last summer I wrote my congressman every single solitary day. I counted more than 300 letters that I wrote. The impact I had was absolutely nil. Anyway. I'm not really looking for a solution along the lines of "more effective activism." I'm looking for a state of mind that is able to accept reality as it is and decide what to do about it, and I don't think "activism" is it.
I haven't bothered to copy Cary Tennis' reply. You can read it here.
Dear Cary,
I've written to you once in the past, and you gave me great advice, so I'm hoping once again you'll share your valuable gift of a different perspective with me.
I'm a journalist and editor from Canada and I have a real problem that I'm struggling with these days -- my nascent anti-Americanism.
Allow me to explain. Like most Canadians I've always taken a bit of a sideways view of the U.S. Nice enough folks but sometimes a bit weird. Generally a force for good, but a bit much if they get too wound up. Just the usual uncertainty about the "other." Sort of like you guys not "getting" universal healthcare and hockey.
Well, for the past several years I've seen more and more evidence that America is a country to be avoided at all cost. You've all been wound up into a righteous rage. And the results haven't been pretty. You've turned your back on some of the wonderful things that made your country great and embraced some extremely ugly things -- imperialism, resource wars, torture, etc.
Our former Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau once observed (I'm paraphrasing somewhat): "Living next to America is in some ways like sleeping with an elephant. No matter how friendly and even-tempered is the beast, one is affected by every twitch and grunt."
That's all fine and well when the elephant is generally even-tempered. But when it's in a foul temper there is little to no protecting yourself from being trampled.
As resources become scarcer and I see us sitting on a pile of them and again and again I hear that "the American Way of Life is non-negotiable," I see a higher and higher likelihood that this is all going to play out badly.
There's a 1932 feeling to the whole thing, with the U.S. playing the role of Germany. Unfortunately that would make us Czechoslovakia and the Alberta tar sands the Sudetenland.
Bottom line, my old coping strategy -- which was something along the lines of "love the Americans, not that wild about their government" -- just isn't working anymore. America 2.0 scares the living crap out of me. And at what point in time do I have to accept that you're sincere and take you at your "brand promise," as marketing and P.R. types like to put it, that your government is truly representative of your people?
And if that's so, how can I possibly like and support your country? And make no mistake, if there ever was a natural friend and ally it's me and my ilk. I live right next door and we share many of the same values and a common history. We have coincident interests in many areas. But, increasingly, I see trying to do business with the U.S. is like trying to do business with the mafia. The rules are slanted against you right from the start. And if you don't believe me, do a little reading on the softwood lumber trade deal -- the one where you willfully ignored an established treaty and basically told us to like it or lump it.
You have every right to govern your country as you see fit. But unfortunately you aren't content to busy yourselves with market fundamentalism and spiritual excess at home. You're equally determined to remake the rest of the world in your image -- whether we want it or not. Your evangelicals mess in our domestic politics, our current government is a pale imitation of your neocons with expat U.S. academics as key advisors, and you insist on attempting to export your insane war-on-drugs mentality.
Additionally you're shocked and appalled when my country doesn't immediately toe the line to your every whim. Back in the schoolyard of my youth there was a word for that, of course: "bully." America presents itself as a nation of bullies.
If you don't believe me, ask a good friend of mine who was down in Grand Forks, N.D., on a day trip in 2003 during the run-up to the Iraq war. Our former prime minister had just announced that day that Canada would continue to contribute troops to the war in Afghanistan, but wouldn't be joining the Iraq war. He parked his car. He went into the mall for a bit of shopping. He came out. He found his car with Canadian license plates keyed. He heard later that several Canadian cars got similar treatment.
Help me, Cary (and readers). Tell me how I can put this aside. I fear that the flow of history is preordained. I fear that regardless of who wins (though I suspect McCain will in the end) none of it matters. Until you're able to accept that American exceptionalism is bunk and that Manifest Destiny is nothing more than a polite way to describe empire, the script for this movie promises heartbreak.
There remains a faint glimmer of hope in my heart. Again and again in the past America has reinvented itself when it has needed to. Perhaps, once again, you'll be able to pull it out of the ditch. But I've been hoping for that for many years now. And I'm beginning to get discouraged.
Ford is doing badly, not because of the AFA boycott, but because they are stupid!
Ford has a new car called the ECOnetic, that gets 65 mpg. But it will ONLY sell in Europe. Why? It's being built in Britain and Ford thinks that Americans just won't buy a diesel car.
IDIOTS. People will buy almost ANY car that gets 65 mpg! Even if Diesel is more expensive (which could be changed if some taxes were lowered on diesel), people would still rather get a high mpg car.
Naturally, Honda and Toyota are all working on new diesel engine cars to sell to the U.S. So Ford is actually ahead of them, but refusing to take advantage of it.
The flaw in their business model is that they are owned by private shareholders but backed by the government. As a result, lenders do not care about the risks the companies are taking because they know that the government will eventually step in to protect them against losses on their loans.
This could all have been prevented if Congress had acted years ago to eliminate the GSE business model. There are three possible models -- privatization, nationalization or liquidation. Congress and the president can decide which it will be, but the worst idea is to reconstitute them as GSEs. Unfortunately, that seems to be the choice Treasury Secretary Paulson made in the plan he announced Sunday
What he neglects to point out though is that there is another flaw that still isn't being addressed: the groups that gives credit ratings to these loans aren't doing their job right.
When Moody's rates a chunk of sub-prime loans as AAA, it isn't so much the LENDER like Freddie Mac who are at fault as it is the RATER and the INVESTOR.
Yes, Freddie Mac's govt backing gave them the ABILITY to buy junk loans for the cheap (and shouldn't have been). But it is the RATER who gave a false rating and enabled Freddie Mac to buy and sell junk loans.
The Rater should have rated the sub-prime loans for what they were--B or C, not AAA because Freddie Mac bought them.
The Investor, looking for a safe investment, will always pick an AAA loan. But they were FOOLS to believe Moody's ratings. And they knew it. People like Warren Buffett knew it--he told everybody that these investments were junk.
The mortgage banks, KNOWING what they were doing, were taking advantage of Freddie Mac to make a quick buck. They knew they can could buy junk loans and hand them off to Freddie Mac. No responsibility, all the profit. And virtually no rules for how bad of a mortgage they can write and still get Freddie Mac to buy it. When anybody can walk off the street and tell a bank that they make $400,000 and the bank just hands them a loan without verifying anything, that's a bank regulatory problem.
The problem is far more systemic than the article suggests. Democrats were always leary of reigning in Freddie Mac because to do so meant that low-income people may not be able to get loans. So that's understandable. Yes, part of the problem is Freddie Mac as a govt-backed entity, but the real problem is how people perceive and take advantage of that and the lack of regulations for how mortgages get written.
Love is what we are born with. Fear is what we learn. The spiritual journey is the unlearning of fear and prejudices and the acceptance of love back in our hearts. Love is the essential reality and our purpose on earth. To be consciously aware of it, to experience love in ourselves and others, is the meaning of life. Meaning does not lie in things. Meaning lies in us.
First Jackson Browne, then John Cougar Mellencamp, then ABBA, then Van Halen, and now Heart...the first suing, the others only complaining that McCain and the Republican party are using their music without permission and thus violating copyright law. Isn't it interesting how the Republican party can't seem to find music that artists are willing to let them play?
And isn't even more interesting that they are willing to violate the law and play it anyway?
It has always struck me as ironic that the Republican party is known as the "moral" party and the ones that are "tough" on crime. This is just one more example of how loose they play with the law. I guess the law just doesn't apply to them.
So the Alaska Independence Party is the one that wants to secede from the U.S. and set up Alaska as a separatist government. And Palin was a member. And McCain's trying to distance Palin from that. They released her voter registration records to show that she's a good ol' Republican.
But, you know, THIS video makes it pretty hard to distance Palin from the party!
Some comparisons being made between Palin and Harriet Miers. That's probably a good comparison. Except this time the Republicans will not make her withdraw.
Been listening, at Michael's suggestion, to the latest This American Life, which is about Carlton Pearson. This is a pentecostal preacher who stopped believing in hell (or, more accurately, in the traditional teaching of hell), and embraced a kind of universalism.
