Jennifer just sent me a link to this article, which really surprised me:
On July 13, Brownback once again advocated partitioning Iraq into Shia, Sunni and Kurd districts.
I think we have to recognize the situation in Iraq and that you have several different populations. The Kurdish population is separate and distinct and operating in its own area and doing a nice job. There is growth taking place there--not everyplace, but it is doing pretty well. You have a mixed Sunni and Shia population in the rest of the country--dominant Sunni in some areas and dominant Shia in others, and Baghdad is a mixed federal city. I think we have to look at that situation and recognize the mixture and the combustibility of that mixture and get to a more durable political solution.
You are seeing now an ongoing migration of Iraqis inside their own country, which I think suggests Iraq will eventually do what would be called a soft partition. That is the logical thing that would take place, and it is taking place today. There is an outcome of many historical precedents--most notably in Bosnia in the 1990s. Senator Biden and I introduced a resolution calling on Iraqis to reach an agreement that would formalize a federal system in Iraq consistent with their Constitution that would allow for Kurds, Sunnis, and Shia to manage their own affairs, with Baghdad remaining a federal capital city.
This is such a mistaken and naive policy. Take a look at how the region is divided. You will see Kurds in the north, Shia in the southeast, and Sunni in the "western triangle". If Iraq were split into a federal system of independent regions, that will surely be how they get split up (you can't just pick up a people group and move them, as we have proven in Israel/Palestine).
Now take a look at the map above and the map below.
Where is the water? Mostly in the Shia region. Where is the only port? In the southern Shia region. Where is the oil? Split between the Kurdish north and the Shia south. The Sunni regions have virtually no natural resources to call its own and is not a viable state. They would be at the mercy of the other two regions. And that's why the Sunni bloc keeps leaving the negotiating table with Maliki, because they are getting screwed. The Brownback plan would be a disaster.
Juan Cole has additional reasons why breaking up Iraq would be bad:
http://www.juancole.com/2003/09/iraq-must-be-kept-together-as-single.html
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